An Attempt to Model the USN Unrestricted Line Officer Promotion Process Using an Adapted Length of Service Markov Model.

Abstract

A Markov Model is developed for the U.S. Navy Unrestricted Line Officer promotion process. The Transition Matrix is derived from historical promotion and attrition data. The model is based on seniority, this being the fundamental measurable qualification for promotion. The model is tested using data on Lieutenant Commander movement in the period 1973-79. Stocks predicted in the test are compared with actual known stocks. The comparison shows the model to be a poor predictor of future stocks because of instability in the promotion process during the period in which data was collected. Large variations in cohort sizes have induced nonstationary promotion rates in the process. The Markov model based on seniority is impractical. Any alternative approach needs to account for, or be independent of, irregularities in cohort size. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1980
Accession Number
ADA092403

Entities

People

  • Richard Winsloe Weber

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accounting
  • Attrition
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Instability
  • Intervals
  • Markov Models
  • Military Personnel
  • Military Transfers
  • Naval Operations
  • Naval Personnel
  • Personnel Management
  • Predictive Modeling
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Schools
  • Statistics
  • Validation

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Military Leadership and Professional Education.
  • Naval Personnel Management