An Objective Method for Forecasting Solar Flares.

Abstract

Solar parameters derived from the region analysis program at the NOAA Space Environment Services Center (SESC) are submitted to a multivariate discriminant analysis (MVDA) in which the parameters relevant to flare prediction are identified and incorporated in a classification procedure to produce a flare forecast. The analysis uses two years of data (6095 solar active region-days). The MVDA forecast is compared with a subjective forecast derived from the SESC forecast during the same period, and is found to have greater accuracy overall. Specific recommendations are made concerning the application of the technique in a forecasting operation, and in the types of data required for future improvement. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 04, 1981
Accession Number
ADA102891

Entities

People

  • Donald F. Neidig
  • Joseph W. Hirman
  • Paul H. Seagraves
  • Philip H. Wiborg
  • William E. Flowers

Organizations

  • Air Force Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Classification
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Data Acquisition
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Discriminant Analysis
  • Environment
  • Errors
  • Filaments
  • Solar Flares
  • Space Environments
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Test Sets

Readers

  • Aviation Safety and Air Traffic Management
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Space/Atmospheric Physics.

Technology Areas

  • Space