Far Field Fallout Prediction Techniques
Abstract
A calculational technique for use in predicting fallout far downwind from nuclear bursts is developed and validated. Possible siting strategies for the next generation of missiles might invite a concentrated attack by thousands of nuclear warheads. The resulting fallout field could consist of the superposition of thousands of single burst patterns. The downwind extent of damaging radiation levels would extend beyond the distances to which calculations are usually performed for single bursts. Numerical models currently available cannot be extended to these large downwind distances because of the artificial pattern break up inherent in their numerical quadrature and because of prohibitive computing requirements. Two approaches to this problem are taken here. First, a numerical smoothing which conserves radioactivity is developed to help prevent pattern break up. This is partially successful in that it extends the predictive range farther downwind, but not far enough. The second approach is to abandon the numerical quadrature -- known as disc tossing -- and adopt a whole cloud smearing approach. The key function needed for the smearing approach, the fractional arrival rate of activity on the ground, is derived directly from physical principles and validated by comparison with an extensive series of numerical (disc tosser) predictions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1983
- Accession Number
- ADA138095
Entities
People
- Winfield S. Bigelow Jr.
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology