Renormalization of Seasonals in the Additive Seasonal Model: Is it Necessary?
Abstract
It is always recommended that the initial estimates of the seasonal factors of the additive seasonal model sum to zero, i.e. are normalized. Once forecasting begins, however, the seasonal factors lose this property. It is often recommended that the factors are renormalized either seasonally or continuously, i.e. with every observation. This document shows that this latter procedure is never necessary since a simple change in the smoothing constants can achieve the same ends. A simpler and more efficient method of obtaining seasonally renormalized forecasts is also given. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 1984
- Accession Number
- ADA140799
Entities
People
- E. Mckenzie
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School