Tropical Cyclone Observation and Forecasting with and without Aircraft Reconnaissance
Abstract
This thesis attempts to better quantify the contribution of aircraft reconnaissance to the accuracy of Tropical Cyclone (TC) center fix, motion determination, and intensity estimates along with the impact on track forecasts. It analyzes the impact on TC observations and weather forecasts when forecasters must rely only on weather satellites by concentrating on differences in TC position-intensity and track forecasting which occur between periods when aircraft measurements were and were not taken. Over 200 TC cases from the Northwest Pacific between 1979-1986, with about 5,000 center position fixes are analyzed. Average and distributions of fix, motion, intensity, and forecast error differences between reconnaissance and non-reconnaissance periods are made. Differences also are examined with respect to satellite type and day-night measurements. Results show that aircraft reconnaissance distinctly improves TC positioning, intensity estimation, and the short range TC forecast. Simultaneous independent satellite measurements of the same TC show that satellite analysts frequently have large differences in their fix estimates but not in their TC intensity estimates. Aircraft reconnaissance does not, on average, appear to improve the TC track forecast beyond 24 hours nor does it affect the conservative current 12-hour motion vector estimate. Recurvature forecasts are improved by having aircraft data, however.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA196379
Entities
People
- Joel D. Martin
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology