Duel between an ASAT with Multiple Kill Vehicles and a Space-Based Weapons Platform with Kinetic Energy Weapons
Abstract
A mathematical model is described for a duel between a ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) and a spaced-based weapons platform defending itself with kinetic energy weapons. The ASAT carries 1-6 kill vehicles and the space platform may first attack the ASAT booster with 1-3 defense missiles. If the ASAT kill vehicles collectively survive the boost phase, they are each subject to a post-boost phase attack consisting of 1-3 defense missiles. A formula for the probability of killing the space platform with a single ASAT launch is derived as a function of the vehicle reliabilities, target detection probabilities, kill probabilities, and number of participating vehicles. Formulas are also given for kill probabilities if the space platform defends itself with a high-energy laser or with both high-energy laser and defense missiles. Illustrative examples are calculated for the case in which the space platform is defended by defense missiles only. It is assumed that all offense and defense reliabilities, detection probabilities, and kill probabilities are equal to 0.90. A sensitivity analysis illustrates the effect of a variation in any one of the assumed parameters on the probability of killing the space platform when all other parameters are held equal to 0.90. It is shown that the survivability of the space platform is crucially dependent on a capability to destroy the ASAT booster before it can deploy its miniature kill vehicles. Improvement in parameter values above the 0.9 level, if shared equally by both the ASAT offense and space platform defense, will favor the platform defense.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1986
- Accession Number
- ADA241820
Entities
People
- P. Cutchis
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses