Recent Methodological Developments in Magnitude Determination and Yield Estimation with Applications to Semipalatinsk Explosions

Abstract

An improved magnitude determination procedure is presented to account for the empirical near-source focusing/defocusing effects. This scheme provides more stable m sub b measurements with a reduction in the fluctuational variation by a factor of up to 3. The events which do not show significant improvement could have been detonated in environments with different focusing patterns. The scatter in the network-averaged m sub b based on the new scheme versus log(yield) is smaller that that for conventional GLM or LSMF m sub b. Our major developments in the seismic yield estimation methodology include: (1) a refined m sub b determination scheme ; (2) a regression algorithm 'MLE-CY' which utilizes the bounded (i.e., censored) yields in the m sub b-yield calibration based on the maximum-likelihood approach; and (3) a regression algorithm 'DWLSQ' which permits both variables to be imprecise due to either rounding or standard measurement errors, thus extending the ordinary weighted least-squares regression. These new techniques are fully tested with recently published Soviet yields of historical Semipalatinsk explosions and the WWSSN m sub b database established at Geotech. The results all appear to be very encouraging in improving our remote monitoring capability.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 16, 1991
Accession Number
ADA244503

Entities

People

  • Robert A. Wagner
  • Rong-song Jih

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Air Force Facilities
  • Databases
  • Earth Sciences
  • Estimators
  • Geography
  • Geology
  • Geophysics
  • Governments
  • Measurement
  • New York
  • Nuclear Explosions
  • Planetary Sciences
  • Surveys
  • Topography
  • Two Dimensional
  • Wave Propagation

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Seismology