Use of Climatology to Predict Maximum Wintertime Wind Speeds at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

Abstract

This thesis uses statistical analysis to forecast the probability of meeting or exceeding the maximum allowable wind speeds for each of the launch pads at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). Wind data were collected from the Weather Information Network Display System (WINDS), a collection of 47 meteorological towers located throughout KSC and CCAS, over a period of five winters. A Fortran program was written to calculate conditional probabilities of meeting or exceeding a given threshold speed during eight consecutive one-hour periods, using the current wind direction and peak wind speed as inputs. Forecast probabilities were displayed in a table according to time period and wind direction. Accuracy was measured by constructing contingency tables and calculating various measures of accuracy. Results were tested for significance by calculating p-values for the chi-square test. This method was found to have very little skill in forecasting maximum wind speeds. It is not recommended for operational use.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2000
Accession Number
ADA383834

Entities

People

  • Lisa K. Coleman

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Sensors
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Algorithms
  • Chi Square Test
  • Climatology
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Data Sets
  • Delphi Method
  • Detection
  • Display Systems
  • False Alarms
  • Information Science
  • Meteorology
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Wind
  • Wind Direction

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Regression Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • Space