Hybrid Value-Utility Decision Analysis
Abstract
The Army faces complex decisions containing many variables and sources of uncertainty. Under standard DA approaches, value functions are employed under conditions of certainty and utility functions under conditions of. uncertainty. Utility functions are unique to an individual, and so must be elicited from the decision maker. The time of military decision makers is extremely valuable, and makes employment of the utility approach problematic. The concept of a hybrid value-utility DA model is promulgated. Such a model may be constructed beginning with a value model based on elicitations from subject matter experts, e.g., staff officers. Selected single dimensional value functions are replaced with the corresponding utility functions to form a hybrid model. Substitutions are prioritized through response surface methodology applied to the value functions of the decision model. Substitutions continue until the performance of the hybrid suitably estimates the performance of the true utility model. Construction of such a hybrid model minimizes the burden placed on the decision maker while maintaining the benefits of DA. A sample case illustrates the elicitation efficiency where an automatic target recognition classification system choice attribute set was reduced from 23 to eight.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA403768
Entities
People
- William K. Klimack
Organizations
- United States Military Academy