Logistic and Multiple Regression: A Two-Pronged Approach to Accurately Estimate Cost Growth in Major DoD Weapon Systems

Abstract

This research confirms the usefulness of the logistic and multiple regression two-step procedure for assessing cost growth in major DoD weapon systems. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2002 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the procurement appropriations of the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisitions. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, multiple regression is implemented to predict how much cost growth will occur. Our study focuses on the estimating and support SAR cost variance categories within the procurement appropriations. We study each of these categories individually for significant cost growth characteristics and develop predictive models for each.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2004
Accession Number
ADA422947

Entities

People

  • Matthew B. Rossetti

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Advanced Electronics
  • Air Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Business Administration
  • Computer Programs
  • Cost Analysis
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Engineering
  • Financial Management
  • Information Science
  • National Security
  • Procurement
  • Risk Analysis
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Public Financial Management and Budgeting