A Probability Tree Applied to a Common Zebra Mussel Dispersal Issue

Abstract

The purpose of this technical note is to show how a probability tree can be used to structure consideration of uncertainties surrounding zebra mussel dispersal. Probability trees are diagrammatic tools often used as part of formal decision analysis (Clemens and Reilly 2001). This particular tree considers uncertainties about the spread of zebra mussels to Bayou Bartholomew in light of existing data and knowledge concerning the physiological ecology of the species. This specific example is a useful model for similar projects involving potential spread of an invasive species. Probability trees help structure the consideration of uncertainty, communicate information and assumptions, and thus provide a tractable analysis.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 2004
Accession Number
ADA423721

Entities

People

  • Andrew C. Miller
  • Barry S. Payne

Organizations

  • Engineer Research and Development Center

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Arkansas
  • Arkansas River
  • Delphi Method
  • Drainage Basins
  • Fungi
  • Great Lakes
  • Habitats
  • Lake Erie
  • Lakes
  • Low Density
  • Mississippi
  • Mississippi River
  • New York
  • Probability
  • Rivers
  • Seasons
  • United States

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Riverine Ecology
  • Systems Analysis and Design