Chemical Demilitarization - Assembled Chemical Weapons Assessment (ACWA): Root Cause Analysis
Abstract
The Chemical Demilitarization - Assembled Chemical Weapons Alternatives (ACWA) program is responsible for the destruction of the chemical weapons stored in Pueblo, CO and Blue Grass, KY. In June 2010, the Program Manager (PM) for the ACWA program notified the Under Secretary of Defense (USD) for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (AT&L) of a significant Nunn-McCurdy breach in the Program Acquisition Unit Cost (PAUC). The PM reported that the PAUC had risen 21.67 percent, from $1.726 million in the April 2007 acquisition program baseline (APB) to $2.1 million in Base Year 1994 dollars. Upon further refinement of the life-cycle cost estimate, the program reported a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach in their December 2010 Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) with a PAUC estimate of $2.403 million, an increase of 39.22 percent from the 2007 APB. IDA's analysis revealed two major causes of the cost growth and a third root cause that is intrinsically tied to the other two. First, the APB was an unrealistic cost estimate, which had insufficient allowance for risk and rested on an inadequate analogy. Second, the systems contract, with an evolving structure, allows for program flexibility, but enables undisciplined behavior by both the contractor and government personnel. A third root cause, a larger allowance for risk, includes elements of both the unrealistic cost estimate and the contract structure, but is sufficiently large to merit a separate categorization.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA549911
Entities
People
- Caolionn L. O'connell
- Ji S. Byun
- Patricia F. Bronson
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses