Strategic Technology
Abstract
This paper examines the concept of technological surprise and offers insights as to where future investments might most be needed. Analysis of recent trends and studies on technological surprise present a rich resource for development of analytical criteria to evaluate current efforts toward preventing or overcoming technological surprise. The analytical criteria are then used to evaluate the current organization and strategy of the United States Navy in this area. Finally, recent historical examples of technological surprise are evaluated against this analytical scheme to develop potential areas for improvement. The paper argues for a systematic approach to technology analysis, awareness, and information sharing. It examines the expansion of massive multi-player gaming environments to facilitate expert education, collaboration, and experimentation. Finally, it recommends a focus on red team analysis and experimentation as a means of minimizing strategic surprise from technological sources. To fully explore potential strategic futures, DoD must adopt a systematic approach to ensure education, collaboration, and experimentation amongst operational, scientific, and technical intelligence expert communities. Having examined the idea of technology surprise, how is DoD organized to prevent it and what, if anything, can be done to improve our posture? All of the services and the joint community have specific organizations whose goals include preventing technological and doctrinal surprise, but for brevity, this paper will examine the U.S. Navy's organization: the Office of Naval Research (ONR). ONR can be viewed as having the Department of the Navy mission to foster and develop new and future technologies and for organizing and prioritizing current technology challenges. Examples of technological surprise include the Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) used during the Iraqi War, India's SU-30 MKI fighter capabilities, and China's Anti-Access/Area-Denial technology.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 11, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA562101
Entities
People
- James E. Boswell
Organizations
- United States Army War College