The Predictability of Near-Coastal Currents Using a Baroclinic Unstructured Grid Model
Abstract
A coastal forecast system consisting of a baroclinic unstructured grid model one-way coupled to meteorological and regional models is applied at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. The sources of error in two-day forecasts of three-dimensional currents, produced from 4 to 14 June 2010, are analyzed by comparison to real-time observations. Of the regional model initialization and boundary forcing, the applied tides and wind forcing, the winds are the single largest contributor to errors in the predicted currents. Higher resolution winds (3 km) do reduce the error and are necessary to appropriately capture diurnal tidal interactions. However, the 3 km resolution meteorological model is still to coarse to represent winds subject to strong interaction with the shoreline. Results also confirm that wind resolution plays a large role in establishing realistic thermal and density structures in upwelling prone regions in both the regional model and consequently currents predicted by the coastal model.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 28, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA563407
Entities
People
- Cheryl A. Blain
- Kendra M. Dresback
- Mustafa K. Cambazoglu
- Randall L. Kolar
- Robert S. Linzell
Organizations
- United States Naval Research Laboratory