On Risk: Risk and Decision Making in Military Combat and Training Environments

Abstract

All decisions involve risk, yet the subject is poorly understood and difficult to define. Understanding risk is vital for military leaders who prepare their forces to operate in risky environments against adversaries who seek to impose risk upon their enemies. Furthermore, the decisions of military leaders affect the subordinates under their command and ultimately the will of the nation that has sent them abroad. It is paramount, therefore, that we use a decision process that will reveal how emotions can affect our judgment. Frequently, cultural forces in the military can result in ill-informed and emotionally biased decisions that are an irresponsible execution of duty. We address this problem by defining the objective components of risk using mathematical concepts and then characterizing the nature of risk in different military environments using these concepts. Our approach uses economic principles, game theory, and decision theory to illustrate how calculations of risk should influence decision making. Objectively defining risk will aid in revealing the subjective components of risk; the mathematical principles explain how decisions are effectively made and how to make decisions effectively. Risk in training and risk in combat pose two very different problems. To be fully understood, these environments must be viewed together. This research aims to create a more informed decision making process and a more sophisticated decision maker.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 2012
Accession Number
ADA574556

Entities

People

  • Jason R. Lojka
  • Matthew R. Myer

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • C4I
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Body Armor
  • Combat Support
  • Combat Support Hospitals
  • Decision Theory
  • Economic Models
  • Fixed Wing Aircraft
  • Game Theory
  • Indirect Fire
  • Mathematics
  • Military Training
  • Operations Research
  • Recreation
  • Second World War
  • Training
  • United States
  • United States Military Academy
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.