Bayesian Hierarchical Models to Augment the Mediterranean Forecast System

Abstract

Eighteen months into the project, the long-term goals and objectives remain as stated in the progress report last year. Our goal is to develop an ensemble ocean forecast methodology, using Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling (BHM) tools. The ocean ensemble forecast methods to be developed should be practical enough to benefit the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS) in its operational mode, and they should demonstrate forecast uncertainties during difficult to predict regime transitions in the Mediterranean Sea (e.g. the Fall transition, deep water formation).

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 30, 2006
Accession Number
ADA613068

Entities

People

  • Christopher K. Wikle
  • Mark Berliner
  • Ralph F. Milliff

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Amplitude
  • Assimilation
  • Covariance
  • Data Science
  • Deep Water
  • Ionian Sea
  • Mediterranean Sea
  • Models
  • Oceans
  • Sea Surface Temperature
  • Standards
  • Statistics
  • Surface Temperature
  • Transitions
  • Tyrrhenian Sea
  • Uncertainty
  • Universities

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Oceanography.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference